From the OECD Economic Outlook, May 2019.
The economic recovery is projected to maintain its recent pace, with GDP growing at or slightly above 2% in both 2019 and 2020. Domestic demand will contribute more to growth than in the recent past, offsetting moderating export growth. Investment is expected to start to recover as financing conditions improve. Stronger household incomes due to the recent minimum wage increase and rising employment will support household consumption.
The primary budget surplus continues to exceed medium-term targets, access to international bond markets is improving and cash buffers are substantial. Safeguarding fiscal credibility requires continuing to meet medium-term fiscal targets. Continuing progress in reducing banks’ high non-performing loan exposures will require deeper measures. Additional reforms are needed to bolster productivity and investment, improve the business environment and raise skills.